ASML: Heading for a soft pocket as expected, but LT momentum remains strong

Yesterday’s conference call was neither reassuring, nor alarming. The downward spending revision observed by ASML was one of our key points highlighted in our initiation report published in September. It was also the main reason to keep a distance from ASML shares in our view. We now have a clearer view and we believe Q4-15 and Q1-16 will suffer from this soft pocket. Therefore, from Q2-16, ASML should benefit from the 10nm ramp at logic foundries. Some 2015 EUV shipments have been postponed due to clients’ focus and full resources allocation on 10nm but we continue to expect EUV for 2017. As a result, our FV is slightly adjusted to EUR76 (vs. EUR77), and we stick to our Neutral recommendation.

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