ASML Q3 results in line, but disappointing foundry demand leads to a cautious Q4 guidance

Today, ASML posted Q3 results in line with expectations. Q3 sales of EUR1.55bn are down  -6.1% on a sequential basis and up 17.2% year over year. This is in line with company guidance of Q3 sales between EUR1.5bn and EUR1.6bn and slightly below consensus of EUR1.57bn (but slightly above our estimates of EUR1.54bn). The gross margin at 45.4% is braodly stable from Q2’s GM (45.6 %), in line with company expectation at 45% and above consensus (44.1%). Q3 EPS of EUR0.75 is in line with consensus expectations of EUR0.74. As expected, Q4 outlook is cautious. The group anticipates Q4 sales to be close to EUR1.4bn and the gross margin is expected to remain of around 45%. As a result, Q4 sales guidance comes well below consensus expectations (cons. Q4 sales EUR1.57bn; BG ests. Q4 sales EUR1.53bn) although GM is in line (cons. Q4 GM 44.7%; BG ests. Q4 GM 44.5%).

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